Basketball-Reference released their Win Shares-based projections on Monday, and after blacking out from trying to comprehend all the numbers, the calculators see Hornets point guard Chris Paul as a favorite for the MVP award.
Real GM explains the wins shares calculation as an “attempt to predict how many individual wins each NBA player will be almost single-handedly responsible for the coming season.”
In more detail, Andre’ snellings at NBA.com compares a Win Share to baseball’s VORP stat: “it relies on the assumption that efficiency is the key to wins, looks at a player’s offensive efficiency compared to the league average, a player’s defensive efficiency compared to the league average, corrects foe minutes played…” adds them together and boom –“that estimates how many wins the player was worth.”
According to the B-R numbers, the Hornets will win 46.6 games this season, with Paul accounting for a league best 14.0 of those victories. Reigning MVP LeBron James comes in second with a 13.8 WS and Dwight Howard clocked in third with a 11.6 WS.
However, the estimation doesn’t guarantee CP3 a 2010 MVP trophy. He led the league in WS in 07-8 and didn’t win squat. Last year he was in WS and he didn’t even garner Top 3 MVP votes.
Anyway, the MVP voters know little about Win Shares.
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